Commercial Real Estate Megatrend Resilience Index 2026
At a glance
- European cities dominate the index, with Dublin, Oslo, Zurich, Stockholm and London leading across the four megatrend pillars, according to the report.
- The index scores 91 cities across 33 countries, covering 97% of the global investible commercial real estate universe.
- San Jose, Seattle and San Francisco lead technology rankings but are weighed down by weaker climate and geopolitical scores.
- Tokyo is the only Asia-Pacific city in the top ten, with Singapore placed 11th; Australian cities score well on demographics but are held back by climate risk.
- Industrial is the most resilient property sector across the 91 cities, followed by residential, retail and office, with hotels ranked least resilient.
What the report covers
The report assesses the long-term structural resilience of commercial real estate in 91 cities, covering four megatrends: demographics, technology, geopolitics and climate. It is published by Oxford Economics as part of its Real Estate Economics service. The index is forward-looking and scores both cities and five property sectors (office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel). It is intended to help investors separate location effects from asset-type effects when assessing exposure to structural change.
Key findings
City rankings show a strong European presence. According to the report, Dublin, Oslo, Zurich, Stockholm and London lead the index, each scoring well across the technology, demographics, climate and geopolitics pillars. The summary does not publish the numerical scores for these cities, so the relative gap between them cannot be quantified from the public text.
US technology hubs show a resilience trade-off. San Jose, Seattle and San Francisco lead the technology pillar rankings, but the report finds that weaker climate and geopolitical resilience weighs on their overall positions. The index therefore separates strength in one megatrend from overall resilience, rather than treating a single pillar as decisive.
Asia-Pacific and Australia present a mixed picture. Tokyo is the only Asia-Pacific city in the top ten, and Singapore ranks 11th. Australian cities perform well on demographics, but climate risks constrain their overall rankings, according to the report.
Sector results rank industrial highest. Across the 91 cities, industrial is the most resilient sector, followed by residential, retail and office. Hotels are the least resilient sector. The public text does not give sector scores, so the size of these differences is not stated.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Cities scored | 91 cities |
| Countries covered | 33 countries |
| Share of global investible CRE universe covered | 97% |
| Megatrend pillars | 4 pillars (technology, demographics, climate, geopolitics) |
| Overall resilience score scale | out of 100 |
| Property sectors scored | 5 sectors (office, retail, industrial, residential, hotel) |
Figures as published in the source; forecasts and survey results are labelled as such in the note.
Why it matters
DMOs & destinations
The index ranks hotels as the least resilient property sector, according to the report. For destinations, this points to the structural exposure of accommodation assets to long-term change. Destination strategies may need to consider how climate and geopolitical risks affect hotel-based visitor economies, not only short-term demand.
Hotels & hospitality
The report places hotels last among the five sectors on long-term structural resilience. Hotel operators and owners may use this as a benchmark when reviewing asset strategies, financing or repositioning. The city-level scores, which the public summary does not quantify, would be needed to judge exposure in specific markets.
Travel tech & distribution
The index is aimed at real estate investors rather than travel distributors, but its technology pillar shows that tech strength does not guarantee overall resilience. For travel-tech firms serving investors or destination partners, the trade-off between pillars may inform how they present market data. The underlying indicators are not described in detail in the public summary.
Methodology and limits
The index uses six to ten indicators per pillar across four megatrends (demographics, technology, geopolitics and climate), drawing on long-range forecasts and data from Oxford Economics services. Pillar scores are weighted and aggregated into an overall score out of 100 for each city and sector. Because the index relies on forecasts, its scores are forward-looking estimates rather than observed outcomes. This brief is based on the publicly available summary only; the full report and the indicator-level detail were not available to the author.
Official source
The report is © Oxford Economics Travel. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel — it quotes only figures published in the source and never reproduces the document.
Check the official statistics on Pulse
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