Aviation data: Flight searches and air traffic to the UK
At a glance
- UK flight search demand fell 3% year-on-year in July 2026, the weakest monthly performance of the year.
- Long-haul markets declined 21% in July, driven by Saudi Arabia and Middle East weakness; China was sole exception.
- Short-haul markets grew 23% in July, led by Netherlands, Italy and Spain; Scotland only UK nation with growth.
- Inbound air traffic to the UK rose 8% in May 2026 versus May 2025, exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
- Long-haul air traffic remains depressed by Middle East conflict; short-haul shows sustained growth since summer 2025.
What the report covers
VisitBritain publishes two parallel datasets tracking demand and actual travel to the UK: flight searches via ForwardKeys metasearch and travel agency data (covering 15 inbound markets from 2019 onward), and air traffic bookings modelled by Amadeus using bookings, schedules and airport statistics. Both datasets measure early-stage visitor interest and realised inbound travel respectively, segmented by market, distance and UK destination city.
Key findings
Flight search demand to the UK contracted 3% year-on-year in July 2026 compared with July 2025, marking the slowest decline in 2026 to date, according to ForwardKeys data cited by VisitBritain. This metric combines search volume with party size to estimate total potential demand. The contraction signals dampened consumer intent after stronger performance earlier in the year.
Long-haul markets experienced severe weakness in July, declining 21% year-on-year in aggregate. ForwardKeys data attributes this to large drops from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East region. China was the only long-haul market to record growth. This pattern aligns with broader geopolitical disruption affecting distant source markets.
Short-haul European markets rebounded sharply, growing 23% year-on-year in July according to ForwardKeys. Netherlands, Italy and Spain led the expansion. Bristol and Edinburgh airports saw the strongest search growth. Scotland was the only UK nation to achieve year-on-year growth, suggesting regional destination appeal among European searchers.
Actual inbound air traffic to the UK rose 8% in May 2026 versus May 2025, according to Amadeus modelled data, and exceeded traffic levels observed in May 2024, 2023 and 2019. Domestic air traffic also grew year-on-year. Long-haul air traffic remained subdued, attributed by VisitBritain to Middle East conflict impact, while short-haul markets demonstrated consistent growth continuing since summer 2025.
Regional performance varied significantly. Birmingham, Nottingham and Glasgow registered the strongest year-on-year air traffic growth among top UK cities in May 2026. When compared to pre-pandemic May 2019, Durham, Stornoway and Newquay showed the most substantial recovery, per Amadeus data. Forecasts predict inbound air traffic will exceed 2025 levels through summer before declining towards year-end.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| UK flight search demand year-on-year change | -3% |
| Long-haul market flight search decline | -21% |
| Short-haul market flight search growth | +23% |
| Inbound air traffic year-on-year growth | +8% |
| Inbound air traffic growth (previous month) | +4% |
| Data accuracy threshold | >90% |
| Number of inbound source markets tracked (flight searches) | 15 markets |
| Number of inbound source markets tracked (air traffic) | 9 key markets |
Figures as published in the source; forecasts and survey results are labelled as such in the note.
Why it matters
DMOs & destinations
Regional performance divergence signals DMOs should focus on short-haul European source markets showing consistent growth, while long-haul recovery remains uncertain. Scotland's outperformance and growth in secondary cities (Durham, Stornoway, Newquay) indicate distributed demand opportunity beyond London, valuable for regional visitor economy planning.
Hotels & hospitality
May's 8% air traffic uplift exceeding pre-pandemic levels suggests sustained booking strength in short-haul segments, enabling confident summer inventory and pricing strategies. Long-haul weakness and cautious forward forecasts for year-end warrant more conservative planning for higher-yield distant markets and portfolio rebalancing toward European-focused properties.
Travel tech & distribution
Flight search data reveals early-stage demand gaps: long-haul searcher weakness contrasts actual air traffic resilience, indicating booking conversion issues or search-to-booking friction in affected markets. Metasearch platforms should optimise messaging and offer presentation for short-haul European audiences experiencing 23% demand growth.
Methodology and limits
VisitBritain synthesises two data streams: ForwardKeys flight searches (covering 15 inbound markets from 2019 onward, with 2-week reporting lag; counts searches multiplied by party size to estimate potential demand) and Amadeus air traffic bookings (integrating bookings, schedules, public and airport statistics across 9 key markets; monitored to >90% accuracy). Flight search data excludes day trips, one-way journeys and UK returners. Air traffic excludes UK travellers returning home. Market penetration is higher in Europe and North America, lower in Asia. Data lags 2 weeks for flight searches and 6 months ahead forecast for air traffic.
Official source
The report is © VisitBritain. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel — it quotes only figures published in the source and never reproduces the document.
Check the official statistics on Pulse
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