Kearney Transportation M&A report: 2024 mid-year assessment
At a glance
- Transportation and logistics deal volume in 2023 fell back to 2017 levels, according to the report.
- Freight volumes fell by nearly 16 percent in 2023, according to U.S. Bank as cited in the report.
- Cumulative private equity dry powder in the sector is estimated at more than $1.1 trillion.
- Kearney expects transportation M&A to pick up in the second half of 2024 and reach full momentum in early 2025.
What the report covers
The report, published by Kearney's Travel and Transport practice in June 2024, assesses merger and acquisition activity across the transportation and logistics sector. It covers deal volumes and values, the post-pandemic freight cycle, interest-rate and inflation effects, and prospects by sector for asset-light and asset-based segments. It is aimed at prospective buyers, sellers and strategic decision-makers. The source is a web article rather than the full report.
Key findings
Deal activity peaked in 2021 and 2022 and slowed significantly in 2023, with deal volume falling to 2017 levels according to the report. Overall deal value declined, with fewer megadeals and average deal size below the 2022 highs. Strategic buyers accounted for more than 80 percent of total buyouts, in line with their ten-year average.
Marine ports and services was among the few segments that did not decline year-on-year in 2023, in either number or value of deals. The report links this to terminal operators and shipping lines pursuing vertical integration, and to capital deployed for infrastructure modernisation and green fuel transition.
The report describes a freight recession that followed Federal Reserve rate increases from Q2 2022. It cites a nearly 16 percent fall in freight volumes in 2023, attributed to U.S. Bank, and notes that freight revenues and valuations declined. It states that the freight cycle has not yet turned, though the market appears to be nearing a bottom.
Early 2024 indicators are described as showing momentum, with Q1 deal volume up 18 percent over Q1 2023 and several large closed transactions. The report qualifies this by noting that many buyers no longer expect capital costs to ease before early 2025, and that the Fed now signals just one rate cut this year.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Freight volume change, 2023 | nearly 16 percent decline |
| Q1 2024 deal volume vs Q1 2023 | up 18 percent |
| Cumulative PE dry powder in T&L | more than $1.1 trillion |
| Strategic buyers' share of total buyouts | more than 80 percent |
| Forward Air acquisition of OMNI Logistics | $2.1 billion |
| UPS sale of Coyote Logistics to RXO | $1 billion |
| Ryder Systems acquisition of Cardinal | $290 million |
| US rail structure | seven Class I railroads; 600 regional and short-line railroads |
Figures as published in the source; forecasts and survey results are labelled as such in the note.
Why it matters
DMOs & destinations
The source addresses transportation and logistics rather than destination tourism, so direct implications are limited. Indirectly, findings on freight, port and rail investment may affect the connectivity and cargo infrastructure destinations depend on. Destinations should treat the report as context on the wider transport economy rather than a guide to visitor demand.
Hotels & hospitality
The report does not discuss hotels or accommodation. Its relevance lies in the financing climate: higher interest rates, which the report says are delaying expected deal activity, may affect capital availability for hospitality acquisitions and refurbishments. Operators with logistics-dependent supply chains may find the freight-cycle analysis useful for cost planning.
Travel tech & distribution
The report does not address booking platforms, distribution or travel technology directly. Its discussion of consolidation, vertical integration and end-to-end service offers may still matter to companies that serve transport operators with software or data. The emphasis on growth potential and technology niches among independent firms may signal opportunities for partnership in mobility-related travel tech.
Methodology and limits
The source is a publicly available web article from Kearney rather than the full report. It draws on deal data, freight-market analysis and an external figure from U.S. Bank, but does not describe its sample, data sources or estimation methods in detail. Forecasts of a 2024 and early 2025 recovery are the authors' expectations, not measured outcomes. This brief is based on the publicly available summary only, and the full report may contain further detail.
Official source
The report is © Kearney Travel and Transport. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel — it quotes only figures published in the source and never reproduces the document.
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