OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2025
At a glance
- Global GDP growth projected to decline from 3.3% (2024) to 3.2% (2025) and 2.9% (2026), driven by tariff headwinds and policy uncertainty.
- US effective tariff rate reached 19.5% by end-August 2025, highest since 1933; pass-through to consumer prices accelerating, especially durable goods.
- US GDP growth forecast to fall from 2.8% (2024) to 1.8% (2025); Euro area at 1.2% in 2025. Labour markets easing across major economies.
- Disinflation stalled; rising global food prices driving goods inflation resurgence whilst services inflation remains persistent across economies.
- Financial conditions eased but fiscal risks mounting; gold prices up ~40% since start of 2025; asset valuations appear stretched.
What the report covers
The OECD Interim Economic Outlook for September 2025 projects global economic growth through 2026 across advanced and emerging-market economies. Published by OECD Tourism, it examines tariff impacts, labour market shifts, inflation dynamics and financial stability risks using official statistics and OECD databases current to mid-September 2025, providing policymakers and industry stakeholders with baseline forecasts and risk assessment.
Key findings
Global growth proved resilient in early 2025 at 3.2% annualised, supported by front-loading of trade ahead of higher US tariffs, strong AI-related investment in the US and Japan, and fiscal support in China. However, private consumption weakened in the US and several euro area countries, and many emerging-market upside surprises reflected temporary factors unlikely to persist.
The effective US tariff rate on merchandise imports reached 19.5% by end-August 2025—the highest since 1933 and 4.1 percentage points higher than mid-May. Steel and aluminium tariffs rose 25 percentage points; copper tariffs 50 percentage points. Full economic effects remain limited due to inventory absorption and implementation lags, but tariff pass-through into consumer prices is becoming visible, particularly in durable goods with high import content.
Labour market conditions are easing. Unemployment rose in the United States, Canada, Germany, France and Australia. The OECD median unemployment rate edged up since end-2024. Job vacancy-to-unemployed ratios are declining in the US, Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada. Nominal wage growth in advanced economies continues to moderate, though remains above inflation-target-consistent levels in the US, Canada, the UK and Euro area.
Disinflation momentum has stalled in many economies. Goods inflation is rising, driven by higher global food prices—particularly dairy and vegetable oils—with Japan, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Korea, Italy and Indonesia experiencing elevated food price pressures. Services inflation remains persistent. Consumer confidence remains subdued, especially in major advanced economies, reflecting elevated policy uncertainty and food price concerns.
Financial conditions have eased considerably, with buoyant equity valuations, recovering credit growth and narrowing corporate bond spreads. However, fiscal risks are growing: French sovereign spreads versus Germany have widened, long-end yield curves have steepened substantially, and gold prices have risen approximately 40% since the start of 2025. Asset values appear stretched despite improved market conditions.
Key numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Global GDP growth projection | 3.3% (2024), 3.2% (2025), 2.9% (2026) |
| US effective tariff rate | 19.5% (end-August 2025) |
| US steel and aluminium tariff increase | +25 percentage points |
| US copper tariff increase | +50 percentage points |
| US GDP growth projection | 2.8% (2024), 1.8% (2025), 1.5% (2026) |
| Euro area GDP growth projection | 1.2% (2025), 1.0% (2026) |
| G20 headline inflation projection | 3.4% (2025), 2.9% (2026) |
| Gold spot price increase | ~40% since start of 2025 |
Figures as published in the source; forecasts and survey results are labelled as such in the note.
Why it matters
DMOs & destinations
Global GDP growth slowing from 3.3% to 2.9% by 2026 signals reduced international travel demand. Rising tariffs and labour market softening in key source markets (US, Euro area) will constrain discretionary tourism spending. DMOs must diversify source markets and emphasise transparency in pricing to mitigate tariff pass-through perceptions amongst price-sensitive travellers.
Hotels & hospitality
Tariff impacts on input costs and weakening consumer confidence will constrain travel budgets in advanced economies. Labour market easing may reduce business travel as employment softens. Hotels face margin pressure from rising food and energy costs whilst demand growth stalls. Operators should prioritise operational efficiency and dynamic pricing to maintain competitiveness.
Travel tech & distribution
Slower economic growth and trade policy uncertainty will dampen B2B investment in travel tech, even as AI opportunities emerge. Consumers' subdued confidence may reduce online travel platform transaction volumes. Distribution partners should focus on cost-competitive solutions and AI-driven efficiency tools to help operators manage margin compression during demand moderation.
Methodology and limits
The report synthesises OECD Economic Outlook 118 (Interim, September 2025) and 117 (June 2025) databases, official national statistics, and OECD Main Economic Indicators. Growth and inflation forecasts are model-based projections. Labour market, trade and tariff data are observed through August–September 2025. Tariff rate estimates use 2024 import weights and assume specified USMCA compliance rates. This brief is based on the publicly available summary and full-report sections provided.
Official source
The report is © OECD Tourism. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel — it quotes only figures published in the source and never reproduces the document.
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