# US Inbound Travel Arrivals: 2025 Halfway Mark

**Publisher:** Tourism Economics / Oxford Economics  
**Published:** 2025-07-22  
**Category:** Data intelligence & forecasting  
**Type:** Forecast  
**Access:** Free  
**Official source:** https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/us-inbound-travel-arrivals-decline-2025/  
**Canonical:** https://tourismintel.ai/reports/us-inbound-travel-arrivals-2025-halfway-mark

## At a glance
- International overnight arrivals to the US forecast to fall 8.2% in 2025, with sentiment headwinds persisting through mid-year.
- Canadian travel contracted sharply: land crossings down 28.0% year-to-date; air arrivals down 13.3% year-to-date.
- Seattle, Portland, and Detroit face steepest declines, with projected drops of 26.9%, 18.3%, and 17.3% respectively in 2025.
- Overseas arrivals fell only 1.2% year-to-date, but key markets including Ecuador, South Korea, Germany, and France show notable weakness.
- Argentina and Italy demonstrate resilience, partly offsetting broader international declines and offering diversification opportunities for US destinations.

## What the report covers
Tourism Economics analyses US inbound international travel through June 2025, comparing actual arrivals against forecasts and identifying market-specific trends. The report examines both Canadian and overseas visitors by transportation mode and geographic origin, with particular focus on city-level impacts. Published 22 July 2025, the analysis revises full-year 2025 projections based on mid-year performance data and sentiment indicators affecting travel demand.

## Key findings
The report confirms a forecast 8.2% decline in international overnight arrivals to the US for 2025. Data through June validates this projection as sentiment headwinds continue to suppress demand. The contraction represents a significant pullback from 2024 performance, though the source does not provide comparative figures for prior-year trajectories or earlier forecasts.

Canadian travel has experienced the most severe falloff, with land crossings declining 28.0% year-to-date and air arrivals falling 13.3% year-to-date. This sharp contraction directly correlates with expected year-over-year declines in border-proximate cities: Seattle projects a 26.9% drop, Portland 18.3%, and Detroit 17.3% in international overnight visitors.

Overseas arrivals show relative resilience but with notable weakness in key source markets. Year-to-date declines totalled 1.2%, though June data alone showed a 3.4% fall versus prior year. Markets including Ecuador, South Korea, Germany, and France have fallen significantly, whilst Argentina, Italy, and selected Asian countries demonstrate strength.

Geographic vulnerability patterns are evident, with cities heavily dependent on Canadian tourism experiencing acute contraction. The report emphasises that destinations reliant on northern-border traffic face disproportionate impact, requiring strategic adaptation. Conversely, emerging strength in specific European and South American markets suggests opportunity for demand diversification among US destinations.

## Key numbers
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| International overnight arrivals to US | 8.2% decline | Forecast for full year 2025; confirmed by data through June |
| Canadian land crossings | 28.0% contraction | Year-to-date through June 2025 |
| Canadian air arrivals | 13.3% decline | Year-to-date through June 2025 |
| Overseas arrivals year-to-date | 1.2% decline | Through June 2025 |
| Overseas arrivals in June | 3.4% decline | June 2025 versus June 2024 |
| Seattle international overnight visitors | 26.9% decline | Forecast for full year 2025 |
| Portland international overnight visitors | 18.3% decline | Forecast for full year 2025 |
| Detroit international overnight visitors | 17.3% decline | Forecast for full year 2025 |

## Why it matters
**DMOs & destinations** — The report signals urgent need for destination-level diversification away from Canadian markets. Border cities face unprecedented headwinds requiring targeted campaigns toward resilient source markets—Argentina and Italy specifically cited. DMOs should reassess marketing spend allocation, pivot messaging, and develop partnerships with emerging stronghold regions to offset projected visitor declines and revenue loss.

**Hotels & hospitality** — International occupancy and rate pressure will intensify across border-proximate properties through end-2025. Hotels in Seattle, Portland, and Detroit should expect substantial booking declines and revenue compression. Revenue management strategies must prioritise domestic demand capture, negotiate flexible cancellation terms with tour operators, and accelerate cost controls to mitigate the 8–27% forecast arrival declines.

**Travel tech & distribution** — Platform operators should anticipate declining transaction volumes in US inbound segments, particularly from Canada. Inventory demand from border-region properties will soften. Distribution partners should expand integrations with Argentina and Italian sourcing channels, rebalance pricing models, and develop conversion tools targeting underserved resilient markets to help suppliers offset broader booking declines.

## Methodology and limits
The forecast is based on Tourism Economics' analysis of official data releases through June 2025 and modelled projections through year-end. The report incorporates actual year-to-date arrivals by source market and transportation mode, combined with sentiment indicators and trend analysis. City-level forecasts derive from historical visitor patterns and market-specific demand drivers. The source text constitutes a public briefing summary; full methodological detail may reside in the complete downloadable report.

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© Tourism Economics / Oxford Economics for the original report. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel (https://tourismintel.ai). Read the original: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/us-inbound-travel-arrivals-decline-2025/