# The Middle East in Global Air Traffic: Effect of Recent Geopolitical Disruptions

**Publisher:** IATA  
**Published:** n/a  
**Category:** Global institutions & policy  
**Type:** Report  
**Access:** Free PDF  
**Official source:** https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/the-middle-east-in-global-air-traffic  
**Canonical:** https://tourismintel.ai/reports/iata-the-middle-east-in-global-air-traffic

## At a glance
- Middle Eastern carriers handled 900+ billion RPK in 2025, representing 10% of global passenger traffic; their share has tripled over 25 years.
- Transfer passengers accounted for 67 million of 417 million global connecting passengers in 2025, with 42% of Middle East traffic being transit.
- March 2026 attacks on Iran triggered 85% flight cancellations from Gulf airports in the first week; fewer than half resumed by month-end.
- China absorbed over one million rerouted passengers in March 2026; Australia rose 14% and Europe 5% year-on-year.
- Middle Eastern carriers control 13% of global air cargo capacity despite operating only 95 dedicated freighters, relying on passenger widebody networks.

## What the report covers
IATA's May 2026 report examines the Middle East's strategic significance in global aviation and assesses how geopolitical disruptions affect operations, passenger flows, capacity scheduling, airline finances and the broader air transport network. It evaluates observed 2025 data and March 2026 disruption events, focusing on hub dynamics, transfer traffic patterns, cargo markets and industry resilience strategies.

## Key findings
The Middle East holds pivotal geographic position at the crossroads of intercontinental flows. Middle Eastern carriers expanded rapidly over two decades, tripling their share of global revenue passenger-kilometres (RPK) to 10% by 2025, equivalent to over 900 billion RPK. This growth reflects the fastest-expanding aviation region globally, built on hub-and-spoke systems routing long-haul traffic across continents.

Transfer traffic defines the region's aviation model. In 2025, more than 67 million of 417 million connecting passengers worldwide transited via the Middle East. Transfer passengers consistently represent around 42% of total Middle East traffic, approximately 2.5 times the global average of 16%, underscoring the region's critical role in intercontinental connectivity.

Geopolitical disruptions immediately restrict available civil airspace, forcing airlines to seek alternative routes and raising operating costs. Following Ukraine's 2022 conflict, Russian airspace restrictions doubled flights over Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Middle East tensions escalating in 2024 raised overflights by 20% year-on-year. The March 2026 attacks on Iran caused the most severe disruption since COVID-19: approximately 85% of Gulf airport flights were cancelled in the first week; by month-end, fewer than half scheduled flights operated.

Rerouted traffic redistributed globally in March 2026. China absorbed over one million additional passengers, while Australia accommodated nearly 14% more traffic year-on-year. Europe saw passenger traffic rise 5% year-on-year, supported by resilient long-haul connectivity. Bookings for June–September 2026 fell across regions except Asia Pacific (up 33% year-on-year). Passengers favoured short-notice bookings and increasingly selected intra-regional over long-haul journeys.

Middle Eastern carriers' cargo role exceeds their dedicated freighter presence. Only 95 dedicated freighters operate in the region, representing 3% of the global cargo fleet. However, carriers' large passenger widebody fleets with substantial bellyhold capacity and dense long-haul networks reduce freighter dependence. Middle Eastern airlines account for approximately 13% of global air cargo capacity and about 14% of cargo traffic measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) by origin-destination.

## Key numbers
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Middle Eastern airlines' share of global passenger traffic (RPK) | 10% (900+ billion RPK) | 2025 observed; threefold increase over 25 years |
| Transfer passengers via Middle East | 67 million of 417 million global connecting passengers | 2025 observed; 42% of Middle East traffic vs 16% global average |
| Flight cancellations from Gulf airports, first seven days of March 2026 | ~85% | Response to attacks on Iran; most severe since COVID-19 |
| Flights operating by end of March 2026 | Fewer than 50% of originally scheduled | Gulf airports recovery status |
| Additional passengers absorbed by China | 1+ million | March 2026 rerouted traffic |
| Australia traffic increase | 14% year-on-year | March 2026 vs March 2025 |
| Europe passenger traffic increase | 5% year-on-year | March 2026; supported by resilient long-haul connectivity |
| Asia Pacific bookings for June–September 2026 | Up 33% year-on-year | Only region with positive booking trend post-March disruption |

## Why it matters
**DMOs & destinations** — Middle East disruptions reshape global travel patterns rapidly. March 2026 crisis redirected millions of potential transit passengers to alternative hubs, increasing Asia Pacific bookings 33% year-on-year. DMOs must monitor geopolitical risks affecting Middle Eastern connectivity and adjust marketing to capture diverted regional and intra-regional traffic flows.

**Hotels & hospitality** — Traveller behaviour during geopolitical crises favours shorter-notice bookings and intra-regional over intercontinental travel. March 2026 data shows passengers adjusting destinations rather than delaying travel. Hotels dependent on Middle East transit traffic should diversify source markets and prepare for demand volatility during regional tensions while capturing Asia Pacific growth.

**Travel tech & distribution** — Geopolitical disruptions create rapid routing changes and booking pattern shifts. Real-time airspace restrictions, load redistribution across alternative hubs and preference shifts toward short-notice bookings demand dynamic itinerary management and regional content agility. Platforms must enhance geopolitical risk monitoring and alternative routing suggestions.

## Methodology and limits
IATA analysed official aviation traffic data, capacity statistics and operational records from 2025 and March 2026. Findings derive from observed passenger flows (RPK, connecting passengers, cargo CTK), fleet data and airspace restrictions. March 2026 disruption data is based on actual operational records and aircraft movements. This brief draws exclusively from publicly available summary statements.

---
© IATA for the original report. This brief is an original editorial summary by TourismIntel (https://tourismintel.ai). Read the original: https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/the-middle-east-in-global-air-traffic